Many believe that presidential investing is like mining for fool’s gold. The last 15 Presidents—8 Republican, 7 Democrat—have yielded a good to great economy 2 out of every 3 years on average. This is my tenth Presidential election as a real estate broker, and it’s been my experience that whatever the market conditions were during the September and October leading up to the election, those were the market conditions for the 2 to 3 months following Election Day. If the market was doing well before, it continued to do well right after. If things were a bit slow, they maintained right after.
Obviously, this election cycle has been unlike any other. We’ve seen recording setting voter turnout, and there is speculation on a contested election. Even with all this uncertainty, the economy seems to be chugging along towards recovery. The equity markets are extremely volatile, and have been during the pandemic, yet investors are betting on a steady strengthening for 2021 and beyond. Real estate professionals are expecting low interest rates, high housing demand, and improved consumer confidence to motivate many to explore their real estate options.
In my experience, post-election normally looks like pre-election—but maybe this time will be different. While we may not know for certain what the future will bring, but we can count on hope. We are all hopeful for a better handle on the pandemic, which will spur the economic recovery. We are hopeful for a better political environment, which will help to support and inspire consumer confidence. Hope is expecting that it can and will get better. We are hopeful. Let’s hope that this hopeful broker’s experience becomes predictive.
Be well. Be hopeful.
